Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 2.496880 2.929693 3.410106 3.982181 4.644138 5.385298 6.277348
2025-11-02 1.716348 2.261905 2.935188 3.824036 4.963209 6.370538 8.237061
2025-11-09 1.225654 1.782804 2.534742 3.616747 5.125611 7.145638 10.043756
2025-11-16 0.946028 1.497862 2.301748 3.546038 5.408502 8.074140 12.154550
2025-11-23 0.759466 1.296104 2.132160 3.511319 5.706138 9.032985 14.415194
2025-11-30 0.661228 1.205491 2.104836 3.672975 6.304373 10.494503 17.601414
2025-12-07 0.559533 1.085276 2.003096 3.687973 6.656925 11.603177 20.362333
2025-12-14 0.474883 0.976298 1.897834 3.672538 6.944496 12.627108 23.095925
2025-12-21 0.409621 0.889509 1.814984 3.678617 7.261632 13.727825 26.080488
2025-12-28 0.388677 0.885716 1.885627 3.979192 8.153647 15.941471 31.291825
2026-01-04 0.348423 0.833465 1.851465 4.067512 8.649193 17.482311 35.439015
2026-01-11 0.316448 0.792749 1.833368 4.183461 9.210594 19.205387 40.117729
2026-01-18 0.278815 0.733121 1.768216 4.196966 9.578926 20.624438 44.430683
2026-01-25 0.236205 0.652942 1.644345 4.063572 9.620955 21.400635 47.563410
2026-02-01 0.195942 0.569712 1.498379 3.855268 9.467365 21.750547 49.855059
2026-02-08 0.169690 0.517297 1.416695 3.784138 9.611807 22.749374 53.641586
2026-02-15 0.149039 0.475579 1.354046 3.748637 9.832922 23.939676 57.981178
2026-02-22 0.140169 0.465772 1.372426 3.921120 10.579588 26.401588 65.454723
2026-03-01 0.125957 0.436699 1.333676 3.937266 10.938189 28.001881 71.112798
2026-03-08 0.112346 0.406341 1.285840 3.920916 11.210869 29.428095 76.516785
2026-03-15 0.101152 0.381194 1.248424 3.927408 11.544174 31.038812 82.541767
2026-03-22 0.100283 0.390827 1.316299 4.247126 12.766485 34.996716 94.769919
2026-03-29 0.093011 0.376404 1.307991 4.341056 13.377308 37.467003 103.514204